Dennis Ross, a Special Assistant to former President Barack Obama writes "only a credible threat of force will stop the regime from crossing the nuclear weapons threshold."
STOP IRAN NOW - September 9, 2022
Dennis Ross, Special Assistant to former President Barack Obama recently penned an op-ed concluding that "only a credible threat of force will stop the regime from crossing the nuclear weapons threshold" - and urging the Biden Administration to implement a four point plan for effectuating such a credible threat.
Ross wrote:
"A decade ago, then-Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak would regularly come to Washington and hold high-level meetings with senior officials in the Obama administration. Iran’s nuclear program was the central focus of those meetings, and I recall his frequent admonition: “You say there is time to deal with it, but I fear we will be told this until we are told, ‘it is too late and there is nothing to be done but live with it.’” I was one of those in the U.S. government reassuring him that we would not let this happen. However, with Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), now saying the Iranian nuclear program “is galloping ahead,” I fear that Barak’s words may have been prophetic."
He offered a suggestion to the Biden Administration on wha could be done to avert a foreign policy disaster that gravely threatens our allies - severely undermines United States national security - and rewards one of the the world's most dangerous and evil regimes - a regime which continues to plan and help perpetrate terror attacks on US soil - with the world's most dangerous weapons. (highlighting added by Stop Iran Now for emphasis).
"Although late, it is still not too late to prevent Iran from translating its threshold capability into a weapon. But it requires first and foremost that Iranian leaders believe they really are risking their entire nuclear infrastructure if they keep moving toward a bomb.
Today, they do not believe Washington will ever use force against them. But U.S. officials can still change that perception by taking a number of steps.
First, Washington’s public posture needs to change. It should emphasize that while Biden strongly prefers a diplomatic outcome, Iranian officials are acting as if they want a nuclear weapon and are using talks to create cover for pursuing it. They should understand that the United States will act at a certain point and take out their entire nuclear infrastructure—one they have invested in at great cost for several decades.
The U.S. secretary of state should make a speech on Iran. He should explain U.S. policy, including the pursuit of a diplomatic solution that would permit Iran civil nuclear power but not nuclear weapons. He should also explain why it is imperative that Iran not acquire nuclear arms.
Apart from threatening the future of the NPT and greatly increasing the risk of a nuclear war in the Middle East, the secretary should explain that Iran is a country that respects no rules or limits: It continues to try to assassinate former U.S. officials and dissidents in the United States and elsewhere; it provides weapons, funds, and training to terrorist groups like the Houthis, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad; it uses proxy forces (Shiite militias) to undermine state authorities (in Lebanon and Iraq); it threatens its neighbors and international waterways; and it openly calls for the eradication of Israel, a member state of the United Nations.
To reinforce the secretary’s remarks, Biden should use his speech at the United Nations General Assembly this month to reemphasize that while Washington prefers a diplomatic outcome, Iran’s approach suggests it wants nuclear arms, not civil nuclear power, and as a result, it is risking its entire nuclear infrastructure. A public posture of this sort will also signal that Washington is conditioning the environment internationally for possible U.S. military action. Even before going public, the United States should inform its allies and use private channels to convey this message to Iranian officials.
Second, U.S. forces should be conducting exercises with U.S. Central Command that rehearse air-to-ground operations against hardened targets that necessarily must involve striking the air defenses that protect them. Iran pays attention to U.S. exercises and will understand the kind of attacks the Defense Department is preparing and simulating.
Third, Washington needs to continue to upgrade the defenses of its regional partners against missile and drone attacks. The aim is both to reassure regional partners and show Tehran that U.S. and allied forces can blunt its military responses or threats. (Much is being done on collective early warning of attacks in Centcom, and this needs to continue and expand into subgroupings within the region to do more to bolster active, integrated defenses. The whole will always be greater than the sum of the individual parts.)
Fourth, the Pentagon should accelerate the delivery of KC-46 refueling tankers to Israel. Israel’s ability to credibly strike Iran’s nuclear infrastructure requires more loiter time to ensure it can also take out hardened targets. It needs these aircraft to be able to carry out the kind of strikes necessary. Presently, the Israelis, who are slated to buy four KC-46 tankers, are not likely to get them before 2025. If the aim is to convince Iranian leaders that the military option is real and they are playing with fire if they continue to advance toward a weapon, Israel should get them much sooner. Indeed, providing them on an accelerated basis will signal to Iran that Biden is prepared to support Israeli action and will not restrain it.
So long as Iran doubts that the United States will use force against them or their nuclear infrastructure, there is little prospect of an outcome that truly affects where its nuclear program is ultimately headed. Instead, sooner or later, Iran will draw closer to a weapons capability, and either the Israelis will act militarily with uncertain results or the Barak prophecy will materialize.
If Iran gets a nuclear weapon, so will Saudis and others in the region, and the NPT will unravel."
Biden should consider this a warning. No one with half a brain - half a heart - or half a soul will forgive him for what would be a foreign policy disaster of unspeakably catastrophic proportions.
And yes - there is still time...at least for now. Not to act is to act.
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