AVOIDING THE SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF A BAD IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

Stop Iran Now - Via Vandenberg Coalition

April 25, 2025

As the Trump administration debates the contours of a prospective new nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran, there has been much speculation on what that deal should entail. While the Islamic Republic of Iran is now at its weakest point in decades thanks to the strong actions of our ally Israel, a bad deal could turn the tide and strengthen the Iranian regime’s hand. That is why, in partnership with FDD Action, National Union for Democracy in Iran, Veterans on Duty, and Advancing American Freedom, the Vandenberg Coalition pulled together the most critical lessons from the failures of President Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It is our hope these lessons will help guide and inform the current administration’s approach.

The first Trump administration’s strong policies on Iran were put in place because of hard-won lessons from the failures of a bad nuclear deal. We cannot forget those lessons now.

Read these lessons and how a strong deal will preserve peace below and linked here.

AVOIDING THE SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF A BAD IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

Lesson #1: Iran Must Not Enrich Uranium at Any Level

The JCPOA allowed Iran to retain all its centrifuges (one-third operational) and enrich uranium to 3.67% (IAEA), two-thirds of the way to weapons grade fuel. This preserved Iran’s ability to ramp up enrichment at any time, which it did under the deal. The JCPOA’s sunsetting provisions on Iran’s key bomb-making technology ensured that Iran would have an internationally recognized, industrial-scale nuclear program by 2030. A nuclear-armed Iran was not a flaw, but a feature of the JCPOA. Any new agreement must mandate the complete elimination of Iran’s nuclear enrichment and weaponization programs, with no loopholes or sunsetting provisions that give Iran a patient pathway to a nuclear weapon or the capability to produce and deliver one.

Lesson #2: Do Not Ignore Iran’s Missiles

The 2015 JCPOA failed to address the Islamic Republic of Iran’s ballistic missile program. Worse, a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution enshrining the JCPOA subjected previously

permanent international restrictions on Iranian ballistic missile tests and military transfers to eight- and five-year political timelines, which have now expired. According to U.S. intelligence reports, Iran is home to the largest ballistic missile arsenal and drone inventory in the Middle East. Treating these weapons as tools of conventional deterrence rather than Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)-delivery vehicles ignores their role in Iran’s military nuclear program. Washington must prohibit all tests and transfers of these systems and ensure the dismantlement of those meeting and exceeding international standards of being a “nuclear capable” platform.

Lesson #3: Monitoring Must Be Done on American Terms, Not Iranian Terms

The JCPOA’s “managed access” framework allowed Iran to evade scrutiny. Military sites went

unmonitored by the IAEA, and inspectors were forced to petition Iran’s mullahs to visit sensitive sites and wait over two weeks—ample time for Iran to cover its tracks. In 2018, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed the Mossad’s discovery of a clandestine Iranian nuclear archive, exposing Iran’s illegal dual-use research for nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Iran also hid undeclared nuclear material, activities, and sites. Future agreements must include unambiguous, intrusive verification mechanisms to counter Iran’s history of deception.

Lesson #4: American Strength Must Be Leveraged and Cannot Be Surrendered Prematurely

Instead of leveraging American strength, President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry treated the Islamic Republic as an equal partner. They squandered leverage by conceding Iran’s “right to enrich” uranium before negotiations began, a significant departure from the international consensus. This concession emboldened the regime to secure further concessions, including tens of billions of dollars of sanctions relief, the lifting of arms embargoes that restricted the Iranian ballistic missile program, and nothing addressing Iran’s support of terrorist proxies. President Trump was right to slam the deal “one-

sided” and withdrew in 2018. The United States, with considerable help from Israel, has restored substantial leverage through maximum pressure sanctions, strikes on Iranian proxies, and regional power projection. Negotiators must avoid premature concessions that forfeit this advantage.

Lesson #5: Sanctions Relief Funds Terror

The JCPOA’s sanctions relief provided Iran billions in cash, which it swiftly funneled into its vast terror network including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. By easing restrictions on Iranian financial institutions, the Obama administration enabled Iran to expand its Axis of Resistance with impunity. The consequences are clear: months after the Biden administration unfroze $6 billion in a 2023 hostage deal, Tehran-backed Hamas launched its October 7 attack, killing nearly 1,200 Israelis and over 40 Americans while taking hundreds hostage. Sanctions relief without ending the Islamic Republic’s support for proxies will fund terrorism that threatens American lives.

Lesson #6: Iran’s Other Malign Behaviors Cannot Be Ignored

The JCPOA ignored Iran’s ballistic missiles program, support for terrorists, extremists, and regional proxies (such as Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, the Taliban, and al-Qa’ida), cyberattacks against the United States and Israel, horrific human rights violations, and hostage-taking. This allowed Iran to maintain its nuclear program while expanding other destabilizing activities, including plots to assassinate U.S. citizens, including former officials and President Trump. Negotiations must use U.S. leverage to curb Iran’s destructive behaviors and protect Americans.

Lesson #7: No Terrorism Sanctions Relief for Nuclear Concessions

Sanctions targeting Iran’s support for terrorism, such as those on the Central Bank of Iran, must not be lifted in exchange for nuclear concessions. These sanctions are critical to curbing Tehran’s funding of terrorist proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah, which directly threaten U.S. and allied security. The removal of sanctions on Iran as part of the JCPOA did not empower ordinary Iranians, but rather filled the pockets of corrupt clerics, radical regime officials, and terrorist groups. Trading terrorism-related sanctions for nuclear promises risks empowering the regime’s terror network while failing to ensure lasting nuclear compliance, as seen in the JCPOA’s failures. Any agreement must keep terrorism sanctions intact to maintain pressure on Iran’s malign activities.

Trump’s Iran Policy: Stay the Course

In his first term, President Trump abandoned the fatally-flawed JCPOA and its weak policies.

Frompulling out of the JCPOA to the elimination of Qassem Soleimani, the Trump administration's first termproved that when dealing with the regime in Iran, the use of pressure yields critical results and lessens the likelihood of war. This is why he began his second term by rejecting Biden’s approach and restoring his “maximum pressure” campaign, backed by a strong show of force in the Middle East. As negotiations proceed, President Trump must not abandon the tough, principled approach guided by these seven lessons and reflected in his first term.